Penn State University leadership has pointed to declining birth rates and a looming “demographic cliff” in Pennsylvania as significant factors contributing to their recommendation to close seven of its branch campuses. The proposal, made public this week, outlines the potential closure of the DuBois, Fayette, Mont Alto, New Kensington, Shenango, Wilkes-Barre, and York campuses following the spring semester of the 2026-27 academic year.
University officials cited a 143-page report that details Pennsylvania’s projected population decline, with a particularly stark outlook for younger residents. Individuals aged 19 and under are projected to decrease by 6.8% between 2020 and 2050, a trend fueled by lower birth rates following the 2008 recession and exacerbated by lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on earlier grade retention. This shrinking pool of potential students, coupled with stagnant state funding and rising operational costs, has placed immense financial strain on Penn State’s network of campuses.
The report emphasizes that rural Pennsylvania is facing the most pronounced population declines, projected to lose 5.8% of its total population by 2050. This demographic shift directly impacts the enrollment numbers at Penn State’s branch campuses, many of which are located in more rural areas. The university detailed significant enrollment drops over the past decade at the seven campuses recommended for closure, ranging from 35% to over 64%. These declines have severely impacted the financial sustainability and the ability to provide a robust student experience at these locations.
While factors such as proximity to larger Penn State campuses with more diverse programs also contributed to the recommendations for Wilkes-Barre and York, the overarching theme of a shrinking student population due to lower birth rates and out-migration looms large in the university’s assessment. The report notes that Pennsylvania is among a handful of states expected to account for a significant portion of the national decline in high school graduates in the coming decades.
Penn State President Neeli Bendapudi acknowledged the difficult decisions but framed them as necessary to adapt to the changing demographics and financial realities facing the state and the university system. She assured that resources would be available for impacted students and that faculty would receive priority consideration for openings at other campuses.
State Representative Jill Cooper, representing a district that includes the potentially closing New Kensington campus, expressed concern over the impact on students who rely on the accessibility and affordability of these local branches. The Penn State Board of Trustees is scheduled to discuss the recommendations and vote on them in the near future.
